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The Gecko Edge Playbook: How To Profit With AI Betting

February 21, 2026

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8 min read

Part 4 of 4: The Gecko Edge Performance Series

Part 1: We Analysed 8,439 Bets. Here’s What We Found. Part 2: W here-to-find-the-best-ev-ai-bets/ Part 3: The 15-Minute Profit Window

Over the last three parts, we’ve pulled apart 8,439 recommendations across 66 competitions. We’ve shown you which bet types win, which ones lose, when to enter in-play, which prompts to use, and how the Sanity Score separates profitable bets from unprofitable ones.

Now we’re putting it all together.

This is the Playbook — a decision framework built entirely from the data. Not theory. Not opinion. Rules derived from what actually happened across nearly 8,500 bets on flat stakes.

Bookmark this one. It’s the reference guide.

The Pre-Match Framework

Step 1: Choose Your Prompt

Use: +EV Goal Analysis

This prompt generates 69% of all pre-match recommendations and returns +9.87% ROI across 1,200 bets. It covers goal markets and Asian Handicap — the bet types the model handles best.

Check: +EV Match Odds & Asian Handicap, primary focus should be the Asian Handicap selections within this prompt.

Step 2: Check the Sanity Score

Three outcomes, three actions:

Sanity Score 6 or above → Bet. This is the strongest segment: +9.98% ROI, 55.1% strike rate, 999 bets.
No Sanity Score available → Still bet. The model edge exists even when the confidence rating couldn’t be produced. +3.91% ROI, 54.4% strike rate, 537 bets. Use EV% as your primary filter (see Step 3).
Sanity Score below 6 → Skip. Confidence is low and either data is missing or trends are weak.

The Sanity Score is the Gecko Edge AI’s way of telling you how confident it is.

Step 3: Check the EV%

Every pre-match EV% band in the data is profitable — but the returns concentrate in specific ranges.

Sweet spot: 10-20% EV. This band delivers +9.5-9.9% ROI at strike rates above 50%. It’s the best balance of edge size and reliability.

5-10% EV is still solidly profitable (+4.18% ROI) and provides the highest volume of opportunities.

Above 20% EV remains profitable but with declining strike rates and increasing variance. The edge is real but you’ll experience longer losing runs.

Below 5% EV is marginally positive (+2.25%) — worth taking if the Sanity Score is 6+, but not worth prioritising.

When no Sanity Score is available, use EV% as the primary filter. The 5-20% range is profitable without a Sanity Score. Above 20% without a Sanity Score to validate becomes unreliable (-11% ROI in the 20-50% band).

Step 4: Focus On These Bet Types

Prioritise these markets:

Under 2.5 Goals — +50.07% ROI, 73.8% strike rate. The model’s best market by a distance. When it says under, trust it.
First Half Over 0.5 Goals — +22.33% ROI, 69.6% strike rate. Lower odds but exceptional consistency. The steady compounder.
Asian Handicap — +7.90% ROI, 53.8% strike rate. Highest profitable volume. The model reads goal difference well.
Second Half Over 1.5 Goals — +13.26% ROI, 54.5% strike rate. Smaller sample but strong returns.
BTTS Yes — +4.05% ROI, 56.5% strike rate. Modest edge but reliable.

Accept with caution:

Match Result Home — +2.22% ROI. Marginal, but positive. Only back at Sanity 7+ where it returns +15.29%.
Over 2.5 Goals — -5.08% ROI overall, but turns positive when filtered to Sanity 7+ (+6.51%). Apply strict filters.

Avoid these unless you have additional reasons or information:

Match Result Away — -54.66% ROI. Structurally broken. Doesn’t improve at any confidence level.
Match Result Draw — -7.55% ROI. The model can’t predict draws reliably.
Over 3.5 Goals — -75.53% ROI. Extreme goal predictions don’t land.
BTTS No — -9.39% ROI. Consistently negative everywhere.

Step 5: Check the Odds

Sweet spot: 2.00-2.50. Highest total profit, +11.41% ROI, and a 51.6% strike rate.

1.50-2.00 is the highest volume range and still profitable (+2.56%). Fine for First Half 0.5 bets where the odds naturally sit lower.

2.50-3.00 is positive (+6.90%) and worth including.

Above 4.00 → Skip. -21.02% ROI. Variance too high.

The Pre-Match Decision Flowchart

For every pre-match recommendation, run through this sequence:

Is it from +EV Goal Analysis? If Match Odds prompt → only take Asian Handicap selections, skip match result bets.
Sanity Score below 6? → Skip.
Is the bet type Match Result Away, Draw, Over 3.5, or BTTS No? → Skip.
Odds above 4.00? → Skip.
Everything else → Bet. Prioritise Under 2.5, FH 0.5, and Asian Handicap. Weight by EV% (10-20% is the sweet spot).

The In-Play Framework

Step 1: Wait for HalfTime

This is the single most important rule in the Playbook.

First-half in-play entries returned -0.27% ROI across 2,324 bets. Second-half entries returned +6.95% from 2,923 bets. The 46-60 minute window alone generated 90% of all in-play profit (+186.93 pts, +8.93% ROI).

Prime zone: 46-60 minutes. This is where you should concentrate your in-play activity.

Extended zone: 61-75 minutes. Still positive (+3.99% ROI) but fading. Worth acting on strong signals, particularly BTTS Yes.

Avoid: 76-90 minutes. -3.52% ROI. time is against you for positions to resolve. For only experienced traders

Step 2: Choose Your Prompt

Primary: InPlay Analysis. 4,229 bets, +4.45% ROI. It’s the workhorse and generates the recommendations that perform in the 46-60′ window.

Secondary: Second Half Planner. 137 bets, +6.63% ROI. Designed specifically for second-half entries — the exact window where in-play works.

Worth watching: Market Mispricing (+15.29%) and High Risk / Reward (+61.38%). Small samples but strong signals. Run them alongside InPlay Analysis.

Skip: xG Trends (-25.86%), Correct Score Trader (-11.38%), Momentum Shift (-1.69%). Specialist prompts for experienced traders only.

Break-even: First Goal Predictor (+0.46%), Late Goals (+1.17%). Specialist prompts for experienced traders only.

Step 3: Check the Bet Type

The golden angle:

BTTS Yes at 46-75′ — +27.24% ROI, 690 bets. This is the single most profitable angle in the entire dataset. By half-time, the model accurately reads whether both teams are creating genuine chances. Prioritise this above everything else in-play.

Other strong in-play bets (46-60′ window):

Over 1.5 Goals — +10.78% ROI, 234 bets
Match Result Draw — +8.62% ROI, 109 bets
Second Half Over 0.5 — +7.92% ROI, 61 bets (73.8% strike rate)
Over 2.5 Goals — +4.98% ROI, 299 bets (turns positive in-play unlike pre-match)
Over 3.5 Goals — +3.76% ROI, 132 bets

Avoid in-play:

BTTS No — -29.85% ROI in the 46-60′ window.
Match Result Away — -7.53% ROI.

Step 4: Check the EV%

Minimum threshold: 5% EV. Below 5% EV is sub-optimal for our objectives

Sweet spot: 5-10% EV. 787 bets, +9.29% ROI. The highest volume profitable band.

High edge: 20-30% EV. +19.22% ROI but fewer opportunities. Take these when they appear.

Above 50% EV → Treat with scepticism. -4.14% ROI. When the model claims a massive in-play edge, it’s more likely a misread of rapidly changing conditions such as a red card.

Step 5: Consider the Competition

Best in-play leagues: Germany Bundesliga (+22.31%), Switzerland Super League (+37.46%), Portugal LigaPro (+35.65%), Australia A-League (+34.99%), Scotland Premiership (+28.28%), Italy Serie A (+12.68%), Spain La Liga (+11.97%).

Avoid in-play: Saudi Arabia Professional League (-40.01%)

Notable: Major leagues perform better in-play than pre-match. The Bundesliga flips from -6.56% pre-match to +22.31% in-play.

The In-Play Decision Flowchart

Is it before half time? → Skip. Wait for the second half.
Is it after the 75th minute? → Skip (unless an exceptionally strong BTTS Yes signal).
EV% below 5%? → Skip.
Is the bet BTTS No? → Skip.
Is it BTTS Yes between 46-75′? → Prioritise. This is your best in-play angle.
Everything else in 46-60′ window → Bet. InPlay Analysis and Second Half Planner prompts.

The Combined Rules — Quick Reference

Always Do

Run +EV Goal Analysis pre-match
Run InPlay Analysis at 46-60′
Prioritise Under 2.5, FH 0.5, Asian Handicap pre-match
Prioritise BTTS Yes at 46-75′ in-play
Respect the Sanity Score 6 threshold
Focus on the 2.00-2.50 odds range pre-match
Look beyond the top 5 leagues for pre-match value

Never Do

Back Match Result Away (pre-match or in-play)
Back BTTS No
Enter in-play before the 46th minute
Back anything with Sanity Score below 6
Back odds above 4.00 pre-match
Trust EV% above 50% in-play

The Power Filters

These combined filters produced the highest returns in the dataset:

Pre-match:

First Half 0.5 + Sanity 6+ + EV 5%+ → +49.67% ROI, 80% strike rate (80 bets)
Under 2.5 + Sanity 6+ + EV 5%+ → +47.77% ROI, 72.5% strike rate (69 bets)
Any bet + Sanity 7+ + EV 10%+ → +18.70% ROI, 55.5% strike rate (333 bets)

In-play:

BTTS Yes + 46-75′ → +27.24% ROI (690 bets)
Any bet + 46-60′ + EV 5%+ → +14.97% ROI (669 bets)
InPlay Analysis + 46-75′ → +9.82% ROI (2,343 bets)

A Note on What This Is (And Isn’t)

This Playbook is built from a six-week, 8,439-bet sample. That’s a meaningful dataset — large enough to identify genuine patterns, certainly large enough to distinguish signal from noise across the major dimensions we’ve analysed.

But it’s still a snapshot. Some of the smaller samples (individual Sanity Scores of 9 or 10, specialist prompts with 29 bets, specific league-and-bet-type combinations) are directional signals, not confirmed edges. The headline findings — the Sanity Score threshold, the 46-60′ window, the BTTS Yes in-play angle, the bet type rankings — come from hundreds or thousands of bets and carry real statistical weight.

As we continue to collect data, we’ll update the Playbook. The framework won’t change dramatically, but the confidence in each rule will sharpen. Think of this as version 1.0 — built on evidence, refined by time.

What it isn’t: a guarantee. No framework eliminates variance. You will have losing days, losing weeks, probably losing stretches that test your patience. The edge is real — +398 points from 8,439 bets isn’t a fluke — but edge and certainty are different things. The Playbook maximises your edge. It doesn’t eliminate risk.

That’s what makes it sustainable. If it promised certainty, you should be suspicious. It promises process. And process, applied consistently, is how edges compound.

The AI Betting Profit Series in Full